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Box-Office Projection

By MI6 Staff

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With MGM confirming to exhibitors today that 'No Time To Die' will be released in cinemas around the world in just over a month's time come what may (despite US confidence in cinema plummeting to just 66%), the latest reporting suggests that box office forecasts have been recalibrated.

According to a person with knowledge of business practices at EON, Vulture reports that everyone’s expectations there have been adjusted downward. "They’ve lost so much money by moving [No Time To Die]; the marketing has gotten stale," the person says. "The Broccoli's care more about the U.K. than anything — making it a big hit in the U.K., a decent hit in the U.S. and the rest of the world."

"With pockets of Europe, Latin America, and now Australia getting hit [with a rise of the Delta variant], instead of doing $100 million, a movie now does 50 or 60,” a studio executive told Vulture. "If the business is off by 30 percent, that kills us. But Bond feels ready to go. MGM is a one-movie company. I don’t think they can hold it another six months." EON is "hoping for the $700m to $800m range. There’s no way they’re going to get there. But there may be some cover: ‘We probably weren’t going to do a huge number. We can blame COVID, do some business in the U.S., and move on.’"

Following up from the analysis published here last month, 'No Time To Die' has to clear $928m at the global box office to break a profit, and that total was on the conservative side. Whereas bigger studios such as Disney and Warner Bros can take some losses, MGM was pinning its profitability on Bond. That problem may be ultimately alleviated by the Amazon take-over, but only if and when that deal goes through.

In the meantime, based on the current cinema performance of recent months in 2021 versus equivalent months in 2019, box offices around the world are operating between 40%-60% of their pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, new restrictions in Europe, South America, and Australia are further reducing the chances for 'No Time To Die' to make that reported $700-$800m goal.

In order to project 'No Time To Die's potential box-office performance, here we take the average of the two most recent films ('Skyfall' and 'SPECTRE') as the mid-point for each territory that earns more than $25m. The smaller territories are combined into the Rest of the World (ROTW) figure. Given 'Skyfall' outperformed expectations in every territory, we will take that as a 'best case' performance for 'No Time To Die'. These are then multiplied by each territory's current box-office performance (various sources from industry news coverage were used to derive these ratios). Finally, current restrictions are listed to complete the picture of what Bond is up against in each region.

All figures are in millions (USD).

Territory	Skyfall	Spectre	Average	2021 vs 2019	Projection	Optimistic	Restrictions
North America	304	200	252	51%	129	155	Varies
UK	161	125	143	50%	72	81	None
Netherlands	25	22	23.5	50%	12	13	1.5m apart seating
Germany	85	73	79	45%	36	38	25% capacity
France	60	40	50	45%	23	27	Proof of vaccination
Australia	50	25	37.5	0%	0	0	Closed
Japan	32	24	28	40%	11	13	50% capacity
Russia	25	12	18.5	60%	11	15	50% capacity
China	59	84	71.5	60%	43	35	Varies
ROTW	308	276	292	50%	146	154	Varies
TOTAL	1109	881	995		481	530

Based on the data above, 'No Time To Die's realistic global box-office take is estimated to be around $481m, with $530m on the upside.

There does not appear to be a path to the $700m-$800m global take that EON has adjusted their expectations toward, and if things continue as they stand today, 'No Time To Die' could have the smallest box-office of the Daniel Craig era.

Notes

Restrictions in the USA vary by state. Major markets such as Los Angeles and New York are instituting proof of vaccination and/or maks mandates that will reduce attendance.
Australian cinemas are currently closed. The film has been delayed until November 11th but until the government reopens cinemas (and under what conditions) this cannot be projected.
China is included here although 'No Time To Die' does not have a confirmed release date as the country only recently reopened to Western films. It is expected that Universal will announce a date for China shortly.